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June 14 我的经济学论文也算是半成品啦,真的是痛苦死我了,才勉强挣扎了这么多。然后就想把他放在我的地盘里了。学了一年经济学了,收获有的,只是真的不敢虚夸,呵呵!我这个专业!头疼! 第一部分 评价功利主义、自由主义和自由意志主义众所周知,当今社会上存在着富人和穷人。这种差别主要因为不同的人有不同的收入,而一个人的收入又取决于这个人劳动的供给与需求,这个人的天赋能力,人力资本,补偿性工资和歧视等等。这样就涉及到经济中总收入在各社会成员间分配问题,必然造成分配不平等。而对于有时可以改善市场结果的政府来说,面临着对这些经济不平等应该做些什么的规范问题。这就引入了政治哲学上的三个主要流派:功利主义、自由主义和自由意志主义。功利主义指出:政府应该选择使社会上所有人总效用最大化的政策。其出发点就是效用,即人们从其环境中得到的幸福或满足程度。根据边际效用递减的假设,一个穷人得到额外收入带来的额外效用大于给得到相同额外收入的富人带来的额外效用,即随着一个人的收入递增,从增加的额外收入得到的额外福利是递减的。这样政府就应该努力达到更平等的收入分配,就能增加社会总效用。但是根据人们会对激励做出反应,该理念又否定收入的完全平等化。因为当政府通过税收使收入高的人交纳高税收,并向收入低的人转移。而税收会扭曲激励,并引起无谓损失。收入无论高低的人工作激励都变小了,这样社会收入减少了,总效用也减少了。所以,功利主义的政府必须使更大平等的好处与扭曲激励的损失平衡。这样,本着社会效用最大化的政府,就不能使社会完全平等。在我看来,功利主义在理论上是完全行之有效,也是最好的一套经济模式,政府决策。但实际上却面临着许多问题。首先,政府在实施税收转移支付时,必须考虑低收入者的贫穷程度和高收入着的富贵程度,这都是比较难以衡量的尺度。对效率损失,即高收入者和低收入者勤奋工作激励弱化程度的衡量难度也是相当的高,这样就很难使平等带来的好处与激励扭曲的损失平衡,几乎是不可能!另外,人的主观性色彩同样影响着效用的大小,人的价值观与人生观,人的追求与偏好,需求与欲望迥异,必将使问题更加复杂化,难度也相应增加。虽然,功利主义才如何达到总效用最大化存在一些模糊的问题,但是其作为一种社会达到的一种状态是值得肯定的。自由主义指出:政府应该选择注定公正的政策。这种公正要由一位在“无知面纱”背后的无偏见评论者来评价。公正的原则是公共协商或谈判的结果。而处于原始状态下的人会特别关注于收入分配最低层的可能性。在设计公共政策时,其目标是提高社会中最差的人的福利,即最小效用最大化。这种最大化标准的规则强调了社会上最不幸的人,旨在使收入分配平等化的公共政策是正确的。但其仍允许收入不对称,因为这种不对称可以增强激励,从而提高社会帮助穷人的能力。但要求的收入再分配比功利主义者更多。罗尔斯这种思想把收入再分配作为社会保险的一种形式。一个社会选择向富人征税以补助穷人的政策时,为自己成为穷人家庭成员的可能性进行了保险。自由主义分析的前提是社会公正,但如何使社会成员对社会公正有一致的认识是个难题。依据每个人的特定环境(地位、财富、才能、既得利益等),不可能客观地决定一个人被所有人认同的公正。受无知面纱蒙蔽的理性人实际上厌恶风险程度是否足以使他们遵循最大化标准?人们是理性人,个人存在才能与努力程度的不同,对于政府强制性的重新分配是否心甘情愿将自己辛苦分的蛋糕又分给他人。所以罗尔斯的公正的正义论值得争议的。实际上,由于原始状态的人,最终可能在收入分配的任一位置,这样就使政府政策又对每一个人平等对待,所产生的公正概念更接近于功利主义了。自由意志主义指出:政府应该惩罚犯罪并实行自愿的协议,但不应该进行收入再分配。社会本身没有赚到收入,只是单个社会成员赚到了收入。政府不应该为了实现任何一种收入分配而拿走一些人的收入并给予另一些人。他对经济结果的另一种评价是评价这些结果产生的过程,并且认为只要决定这些收入分配的过程是公正的,所引起的分配无论如何不公平都是公正的。这种强调过程而不是结果很有说服力,机会成本比收入平等更重要,政府只要强调个人的权利,以确保每个人有同样使用自己才能并获得成功的机会就可以了。这是我最赞同的一种观点,也是我认为最符合实际,最易实行、最有效率,也是最为人们接受的政府政策。社会并未创造财富,他没有权利来分配社会果实。只要保证同等的机会成本,获取更高收入者意味着其具有更高的能力,机会平等并不意味着结果平等。这样不但会激励人们努力创造更多的财富,一分耕耘,一分收获,而且政府也能够明确地打击惩罚破坏不平等的行为。然而,这也是一件艰难的任务,要使每个人机会平等也非易事。以上即是三种不同的主要流派所主张的政府采取的政策以及分别我对其的愚见,总体说来,前两种主义有一定的相似之处,而第三种观点重视过程的看法截然相反,也是现实中能够实行并贯彻的政策。有待更好的更完善的方法出现。第二部分 对人民币汇率水平的经济分析 2005年7月21日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。人民币对美元即日升值2%,即1美元兑8.2765人民币升至8.11元人民币。现阶段,每日银行间外汇市场美元对人民币的交易价仍在人民银行公布的美元交易中间价上下3‰的幅度内浮动。汇改以来,人民币兑美元汇率振荡上行,到10月底人民币兑美元累计升值不到0.3%。总体看,汇率形成机制改革平稳实施,为今明两年人民币汇率形成机制的进一步完善和人民币汇率向合理、均衡水平过渡奠定了基础。一直以来,因应对亚洲金融危机的冲击,中国收窄了人民币汇率浮动区间,有管理的浮动汇率事实上变成了固定汇率,人民币一直盯住美元。我国启动汇率改革,人民币盯住美元的状态被打破,改为参考一篮子货币进行调节,实现有升有贬的小幅双向波动,总体上呈升值态势。截至2005年9月末我国外汇储备余额为7690亿美元,比2004年底的6099亿美元高出1591亿美元。这部分外汇皆来自具有“热线”性质的境内金融机构减少国外资产运作将资金调回境内,或增加国外短期借款,或来自于居民将手持外币兑换成人民币。我国外汇储备规模继续扩大,但人民币汇率保持稳定。经济学十大原理之一:贸易可以使每一个人的状况变好。所以国际贸易开放好处是显而易见的,一个与世界其他经济自由交易的经济------开放经济。物品与劳务的国际流动需要一个国际价格,名义与实际汇率。以上所谈及的人民币汇率即是指名义汇率,一个人可以用一国通货交换另一国通货的比率。名义汇率预期和利率的关系构成利率平价,左右国际资本流动。当一种通货升值时,它是“坚挺”的,贬值时,则是“疲软”的。以下根据上面陈述的人民币汇率机制改革主要谈论一下有关名义汇率的问题,以及从所学到的经济学理论作简要分析。人民币升值对中国经济而言是一柄双韧剑,有利和不利影响一俱共存,综合起来的总体效应是利是弊,皆看调整的“时机”、“幅度”和“频率”上。人民币汇率升值后将会引起进出口价格变动导致出口减少而进口增加,贸易平衡状况发生变化,改善了贸易条件。人民币的升值意味着我们拥有的钱在国际市场上这个大篮子里买的东西更多了,我们变富裕了,进口货大幅下降,劳动力价格上涨,留学也相对便宜。国内企业对外投资能力增强,在华外商投资企业盈利增加,外债还本付息压力减轻,中国资产出卖更合算,中国GDP国际地位提高,增加国家税收收入。而另一方面,国内价格水平下降以及出口受阻,挤压企业的国内投资利润空间,削弱投资意愿,增大就业压力。给中国的通货紧缩带来更大的压力,但也相同的抑制了通货膨胀。导致对外资吸引力的下降,减少外商对中国的直接投资。财政赤字增加,同时影响货币政策稳定。如下表所示:汇率变动对宏观经济主要指标的影响汇率升值 1% 2% 3% 5% GDP --0.27 --0.54 --0.82 --1.38 劳动力 --26.5 --50.4 --83.8 --110.4 商品出口 --0.77 --1.53 --2.33 --3.92 商品进口 0.11 0.22 0.33 0.56 投资 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.60 消费 --0.04 --0.07 --0.11 --0.18 财政收入 --0.34 --0.74 --1.15 --1.79 财政支出 --0.35 --0.77 --1.20 --1.86 国际收支理论、资产市场理论与购买力平价理论是关于汇率决定的主要理论。国际收支理论认为汇率决定于外汇的供给与需求,当一国的国际收支顺差时,外汇供大于求,因而汇率下降;当国际收支逆差是,外汇需求大于供给,因而汇率上升;如果外汇收支相等,汇率处于均衡状态不会发生变动。资产市场理论认为各国货币的比价决定于各种外币资产的增减,各种外币资产的增减是由于投资者调整期外币资产的比例关系造成的。这种调整往往引起资金在国际间的大量流动,对汇率发生影响,而相对利率水平是资金在国际间大量流动的原因。购买力平价认为,汇率主要是由两国货币在其本国所具有的购买力决定的,即两种货币购买力之比决定两国货币的交换比率。在此,我想首先着重从购买力评价理论来做分析。其是根据单一价格原则得出的。即一种物品在所有地方都应该按同样的价格出售,否则就有未被利用的利润机会。而利用这种不同市场上价格差的过程称为套利,即对产生对汇率的投机。那么,一种通货必然在所有国家都具有想同的购买力。平价就意味着平等,而购买力是指货币的价值。而两国之间的名义汇率取决于这两个国家的物价水平。放到中国人民币上来看,自1994年,人民币就一直盯住美元,兑美元率在8.3人民币元/美元上下小幅浮动。近年来,中国通货膨胀率和美国基本一致,工资和生产率增长速率大大高于高于美国。这意味着和美元相比,人民币的购买力已大大提高。中美之间的购买力需要调整,目前的人民币水平的确被低估了。从国际收支看,国内外汇明显供大于求,外汇储备规模过大。中国的贸易顺差主要来自对美国和对欧盟的贸易,这两个顺差之和远远大于中国总的贸易顺差。从出口方面看,全球经济稳步发展对我国产品的需求依然强劲,国内经济高增长推动跨国集团的产业转移进一步深化,在外商投资企业的影响下国内企业的对外竞争力进一步增强,中国外贸经营权完全放开和配套政策逐步落实。从资产市场上看,美国已进入一轮加息周期之中,人民币兑美元升值压力有所缓解。美国升息后,美元和人民币的利差加大,对短期资本流入我国有一定抑制作用,有利于缓解人民币兑美元的升值压力。人民币汇率机制的改革不是跟别人商量的结果,是中国政府根据自己国家的改革需要和国际金融形势的变化,根据中国迈向社会主义市场经济优化资源配置的自主的决策。综上也能够分析出厉害关系,改革时机“出其不意”但恰到好处。 June 05 Oral Test Lecture II
Nowadays in China undergraduates are given the legal permission to get married.I can't agree with it more.I don't understand why it's forbidden for a colleage student to get married .Now,I'll represent my reasons and views.
Firstly,according to the law, only if the two persons both get to the legal ages that men should be more than 22,while women should be more than 20.In another words,they have been adults with their own thoughts.They can distinguish the right and wrong between the living things.They have more rights and responsibilities in the society .So if they really want to marry each other,it must be though deep thought without impluse for a moment .They'll be responsible to their own action.
Secondly,why we take college students specially while they are also human-beings and the social people as the same with others.So they can share the same rights.
Thirdly,someone may be afraid of the marriage may affect their study.Yes,it will.However,they are good aspects.They will always got supports from each other.The partner is his or her the precious motivity.Further more wedlock is better than the resultless enthusiasm amativeness.I admit that the main thing to students is school work,but it doesn't conflict with wedlock.I want to cite a sentence here" Behind every successful man,there is a great woman."
Finally,I think the love between the college students is true and pure without any comlecated social factors.And once you find the true love,don't miss the chance .
Ok,that's all my opinions I can speak out at present.Now I want to give a little suggestion to those married undergraduates.Once the new family is built up .A child will come up some day.But I think they'd better have a baby afer they have graduated when they are absolutely economical indenpent.Because raising a child may cost a lot of money and parents vagor and time.
That's all!Thank you ! Oral Test Lecture I
Unfortunately,we only have one year's chance to study English led by teachers.In order to improve my English and pass Band Test 6,we need to go on learning English someway.Many students choose to take a class to study English in case someday they will give up without determination.I hold on learning myself.Not only is studying one's own thing but also I believe in myself.I'm fond of the various languages naturally,at least I think so.This year,I learned Japanese and a little simple Korean because I like to the Korean TVs.Now I have already mastered somewhat basis of English ,and according to my English level now.The only problem is the consistance.
Now I will introduce my concrete plans.
Firstly,also the above task is to enlarge my vocabularies.I don't like to hold a dictionary to bite.It's not only tired but also resultless.So I decide to go on studying the New Concept 4.Every day I learn one lesson except the weekends.This semster I have learned the third book and have continued to the end.So I have great confindence that I can do that.The vocabulary in that book is far away from demands.So I'll make full use of th existent sources the 21 Century which is sent to our domitoty every week,the famous and heavy work<Gone With The Wind>my Chinese teacher Miss Wang gave me as a present when I graduated.Also I want to order some kind of English Newspaper.
Secondly,listening and speaking is also important and the final aim of learning English .So I'll try my best to spare my time to take part in English cornor more ofen.I have made a friend with Laura.I'll connect with her more fluently.If I have the chance ,I'd like to be a Chinese teacher of an English-spoken foreigner.I can alse learn some money .(smile)
At last,what is the easiest to carry on is to listen to the English song and watch movies.That's enjoyful and learning in the amuzement.
someday I have to work hard for Band Test 6 and my future.English is a necessary tool in my life ,I'll supervise myself tomake my plan into effort.Maybe there'll be more lessons and more word in Grade 2,such agreat task need my courage and determination.I believe,where is the will,there is the way! May 20 红灯红灯 罗燕如 小港机场下完了客人,运气不错,又有人拦车。 我偷偷地端详了这位小姐,不美,但五官匀称;两排长睫毛像围着湖泽的小丛林;弧形分明的嘴唇,很有个性地紧抿着。她斜倚在后座,似乎很累很累。 我比平时跟专心地开起车来。说也奇怪,忍不住从反射镜中多看她几眼,但我不能看得太勤,免得让她误会我心怀不轨。 车行一半,我在镜中,忽然看到她潸然泪下就像一只带雨梨花,惹得我有说不出来的怜爱。 “探病吗?小姐。”本不应该向乘客多舌的。 “……”拭干了泪水,她轻轻地点头。 “病情如何?”该死!问这干么?开了几年车,最痛恨的就是一上车叽喳不停的乘客。今天自己中了什么邪?搭个什么讪?万一…… “弥留。”沉重地吐出这两个字,她像决堤的洪水,哭得凄凄切切,叫人好不心疼。 我见过弥留的病人,和死人只差一口气。她一定急着见这个亲人,慢一步说不定天人水隔。我该…… 于是,加足马力,闯了一个红灯又一个红灯,甘冒被警察罚款的危险,我想帮她一点儿忙。 “嘎——“医院到了。急踩了刹车,油然而生的英雄感,使我无限骄傲。好啦:现在就等着她谢意的目光…… 谁知“啪——”一记清脆的耳光想自我的左颊。她原本姣好的脸孔,一阵青一阵绿地扭成一团,从牙缝中恨恨地挤出:“都是你们这些没道德的司机,专抢红灯,否则我先生也不会被撞得奄奄一息,躺在医院里!”她像丢垃圾一样扔下两百块在我脸上……
March 31 King Henry The FourthKing Henry The Fourth Actually it was written by the world-famous dramatist and poet William shakespeare . As we all know , the great man’s words are hard to be understood , so it takes a grown man and a wise one to understand his full meaning .Then I decided to read the book called<History Tales From Shakespeare> and rewritten by A.T. Quiller-couch . Because of the time limited , I only have a look at the part of <King Henry The Fourth>. In order to attract us to the rich and wonderful book , Mr Couch throwed the stories into plain narrative form ,and made the language more ordinary,representing these vivid picture . It’s true that these plays are full of the fervent patriotism and lay great stress on the characters of some classic persons . There aremany vivid figures in the play ,so that it made readers concern the heros in it . However now,I just want to take about the person appearing in the part I have seen. Bolingbroke,the King Henry the Fourth,made his way to his seat so crookedly.He killed the predece king ---King Richard the Second , he was not the right person to inherit the kingship , so he breached the moral principle of humanism,While he knew the importance of the mass people ,so he tried his best to be a popular king and approve the people’s choices by governing to please them.From the description of the king ,I can see the writer’s thoughts that if the morality could be improved , a excellent king would appear.Once the wise king has been produced , the sociaty would be more peaceful and properous,and people lead a happy life . A typical person drawn concretely and delicately is Falstaff---the world-known figure which gave me a deep impress. He is a old but infamy fat Knight,born in a noble family but contemped the hornor of the feudalism. He was poor without anything ,but still proud of his statue of Knight all the time ,actually with hardly the spirit of a Knight. He cheated ,lied and flaunted,but defended himself ridiciously.He was afraid of death,but he pretended to be brave enough. However, because of his completely freedom and the humor talent,he could please the one who was benefit for him .In addition ,he also liked joking himself for others’ like ,although being a gangster with a profligate life,on him there were many lovely points. In all, in this part , from the noble to the common people , all have gotten onto the large stage of history. The battles between the king and liege, the gangsters’ robbing , the bureaucrats’extrots , the police’s searching, the gentlmen’s bag-play, the peoples’ privation… From the book I have seen the whole country and the whole society of the England in the sixteenth centruy. I thought a lot…... |
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